Views: 59 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2020-10-12 Origin: Site
would you please give me your forecast for the prices for year 2021: If the prices will be stable, go down or go up , than what will be the reason –currency rate, poor harvest, ecological or political satiation etc
Actually it is absolutely impossible to forecast for the prices of 2021 crops, also very difficult to forecast how the prices of 2020 crop going before harvest of 2021 crops around May and June 2021.
It is approaching the end of growing of 2021 crops for time being, so far we have not got statistic report of growing area this year. The factors which could effect the prices include growing area and yields, wheather changes during crop life cycle, stocks of old crop when new crop harvests, demands of domestic and overseas market, also foreign exchange rate as you mentioned. No one is able to forecast how the factors would be in future, therefore no one can forecast
of the prices of 2021 crops, even if to forecast prices trend in such a long period of times is becoming impossible.
Generally people involving in garlic business tends to forecast future prices at such a point of time as harvest time
during May and June ; time for cold storage during July and August; time after Chinese New Year around January and
Feburary; and the time when market prices flucuating dramatically. Those forecasts are also for short period of times, one or two months, weeks or even days.
Last year,garlic flakes price start to go up from Oct.But this year,the amount for fresh garlic is big,but till now,the export quantity is increasing 30%
compare to last year.So this year,we estimate in Oct,the price will be stable.
Need to wait end of Oct or early of Nov.After count the area of new plant garlic.If plant area decreased over 20%,price will go up continue.if less 20%,
price will be stable.
This year,Chinese weather is uncommon,some people said this winter will be very cold,so the harvest in 2021 will not be good.So,this will support
people to buy in and then market price will stable or go up.
And currency rate,now 1USD=6.7RMB,it is said that will be 1USD=6.5RMB.
Other reasons now can not influence the price.
For your reference,when I have more infomation I will update to you as soon as I can.